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人民币汇率问题科普贴
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收藏 查看&基准汇率本词条缺少概述、信息栏、名片图，补充相关内容使词条更完整，还能快速升级，赶紧来吧！ 什么是基准汇率（BasicRate）
通常选择一种交易中最常使用、在中所占的比重最大的可的作为主要对象，与本国货币对比，订出汇率，这种汇率就是。关键货币一般是指一个，被广泛用于计价、结算、、可自由兑换、国际上可普遍接受的货币。目前作为关键货币的通常是美元，把本国货币对美元的汇率作为基准汇率。
基准汇率是与对外经济交往中最常用的基本之间的汇率，目前，各国一般都以美元为基本外币来确定基准汇率。2006年8月以前我国基准汇率包括四种：人民币与美元之间的汇率、人民币与日元之间的汇率、人民币与欧元之间的汇率以及人民币与港币之间的汇率。2006年8月以后基准汇率又增加了人民币对英镑的汇率。
人民币基准汇率是由中国人民银行根据前一日银行间外汇市场上形成的美元对人民币的，公布当日主要交易货币（美元、日元和港币）对人民币交易的基准汇率，即市场交易。
新手上路我有疑问投诉建议参考资料 查看您已经赞过此文了。
纽约时报讨论：中国汇率的变化意味着什么
发表时间：浏览量：5091评论数：3挑错数：0
What China’s Currency Shift Could Mean 中国汇率的变化意味着什么 China is expected to announce that it willallow the renminbi or yuan, to appreciate against the dollar in the comingdays. The currency’s value would fluctuate day to day and any increase in valuecould be gradual and lim ..
What China’s Currency Shift Could Mean 中国汇率的变化意味着什么 China is expected to announce that
in the comingdays. The currency’s value would fluctuate day to day and any increase in valuecould be gradual and limited. Even so, the move would be good news for theObama administration, because an undervalued renminbi keeps China’s exportscheap and makes American exports more costly by comparison. 预计中国会在接下来的几天宣布允许人民币或者元相对美元升值。货币的价值将会每天浮动然后逐渐和有限的升值。即便是这样，对于Obama政府来说这也是好消息，因为低估的人民币让中国的出口更便宜而相对应的让美国的出口更加昂贵。
Will a somewhat more flexible exchange rate benefit theAmerican economy significantly? What kind of effect will it have on thechanging Chinese economy and other Asian economies?
一定程度更加灵活的汇率会给美国经济带来重大的利好吗？这会给变化中的中国经济和其它的亚洲经济体带来什么影响呢？
economist, Cornell University Eswar Prasad,经济学家，康奈尔大学
former I.M.F. economist Desmond Lachman,前国际货币基金组织经济学家
professor of political economy, M.I.T. Yasheng Huang,政治经济学教授，麻省理工
Rhodium Group
Dniel H.Rosen, 荣鼎集团（一家专注于中国的顾问机构，Dniel是其负责人）
Peking University
Michael Pettis, 北京大学
What’s Good for China 对中国有什么好处 & is a professor at Cornell University and a seniorfellow at the Brookings Institution. He is a former head of the InternationalMonetary Fund’s China Division. Eswar Prasad是康奈尔大学的教授和布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Institution）的高级研究员。他是国际货币基金组织中国部的前领导人。 A shift in China’s currency policy is not a panacea forimbalances in either the Chinese or U.S. economies, but it puts in place animportant piece to a complex jigsaw puzzle. 对于中国或者美国经济的不平衡并不是灵丹妙药，但是这是解决这个问题的复杂拼图中最重要的一环。 A currency move could boost household consumption,making the Chinese economy more balanced and less dependent on exports.
汇率的改变将会刺激家庭消费，让中国经济更加平衡并且减少对出口的依赖。 The immediate benefit of a modest currency adjustment isthat it will cool off some of the overheated rhetoric in China and the U.S.,allowing the nations to focus on important economic and strategic issues ratherthan getting into petty trade disputes.
这次小幅度的汇率的调整最立即的好处就是给中美两国这场激烈的争论降降温，同时也让大家都集中精力到解决重要的经济和战略问题而不是纠缠在次要的贸易争端上面。 A modest appreciation of the renminbi will not by itselfwipe out America’s trade deficit or China’s trade surplus. But if this movegenerates momentum towards a more flexible exchange rate, it could help achievesome important objectives. Chinese officials speak of banking reforms as a keypriority and consider their huge trade surplus a structural problem havingnothing to do with currency policy. There is, in fact, a deep connectionbetween these issues. 人民币小幅度的升值不会自然而然的解决美国的财政赤字或者中国的贸易盈余。但是如果这次的行动意味着更加灵活的汇率机制的开始的话，这将带来很重要的影响。中国官方认为银行的改革是最优先考虑的并且其巨大的贸易盈余是一个结构性的问题而与汇率政策没有关系。事实上，这些问题之间有很强的联系。
A Slow MotionTrain Wreck “火车残骸的缓慢移动”
a resident fellow at the American EnterpriseInstitute, is a former managing director of Salomon Smith Barney and a formerInternational Monetary Fund economist. Desmond Lachman，美国企业研究学会的永久研究员，前所罗门美邦（隶属花旗集团下的一家全球性的，提供全面金融服务的公司）的管理主任和前国际货币基金组织的经济学家。 One cannot but help get a feeling of déjà vu followingTimothy Geithner’s current visit to Beijing to extract from the Chinese theminimal amount of exchange rate flexibility that will allow him to resiststrong Congressional pressure to deem China a currency manipulator. 当看到Timothy Geithner用最近对北京的访问中从中国哪里勉强获得的小幅度汇率浮动来抵抗国会要求将中国例为汇率操纵国的巨大压力时，我们不得不说这是一种似曾相识的感觉。 A modest currency appreciation is unlikely to reduceChina’s huge payment surplus, and that’s a problem for the U.S. 汇率小幅度的升值看起来不会减少中国巨大的收支顺差和这个问题对美国的影响。
Is this not what happened in July 2005 when China misledthen-Treasury Secretary John Snow into believing that an initial move toward amore flexible Chinese exchange rate would be the start of better policycoordination between the two countries to address China’s very large bilateralpayment surplus with the United States? 这不跟2005年7月发生的一幕一样吗？中国让时任财政部长John Snow错误的相信：更加灵活的汇率的启动将是两国国家用更好的政策来协调解决中国对美国巨额的收支顺差的良好开始。 China’s modest currency appreciation between July 2005and September 2008, which was unaccompanied by measures to promote Chinesedomestic consumption, did nothing to slow China’s rapid export growth or tohalt its ballooning trade surplus with the United States.
中国汇率在2005年7月和2008年9月之间的小幅度升值，这期间没有实行刺激中国国内消费的措施，这对减缓中国快速增长的出口和遏制对美国的贸易盈余的快速增长没有起到任何作用。
Complicated Risks 复杂的风险 & is professorof political economy and international management at Sloan School ofManagement, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is the author of“Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics.” Yasheng Huang是麻省理工斯隆商学院的政治经济学和国际管理的教授。他也是“中国特色资本主义”的作者。
Many of the criticisms of the Chinese exchange ratepolicy are quite sensible, especially those that identify other developingcountries as bearing some of the burdens of the Chinese policy (mostly in theform of forgone export opportunities).
许多对中国汇率政策的批评合情合理，特别是那些认为中国的政策给其它的发展中国家带来负担的说法（大多数是影响了出口的机会）。 A gradual exchange rate adjustment will make China’sreal estate bubble’s worse, and its eventual bursting more of a calamity. 汇率的渐进调整将会让中国房地产市场泡沫恶化并且最终爆发严重的灾难。
But I think advocates for a stronger renminbi haveexaggerated the benefits of such a move for other developing countries and mayhave under-estimated some of the risks for China. 但是我认为提倡更强劲的人民币人夸大了这一举措对其它发展中国家的好处并且低估了对于中国的风险。 The benefits of a revaluation on other developingcountries will not be instantaneous. It took China 10 to 15 years to build itspowerful export clusters in the coastal regions and that was already consideredas a supersonic speed. Adjusting China’s exchange rate, while moving things inthe right direction, is not going to solve the immediate challenge ofjump-starting growth during this round of global recession. 币值重估对于其它发展中国家的好处不会那么快的体现。中国用了十到十五年才在沿海地区建立强劲的出口基地而这已经被认为是超音速了。中国汇率的调整，是向着正确的方向，但是并不能立即解决这一轮危机过后经济复苏的挑战。
Beijing WillDo What Benefits China 中国将会做对中国有利的
is principal of the Rhodium Group, a New York-basedeconomic advisory practice, and a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute forInternational Economics in Washington. Daniel H.Rosen是位于纽约的经济顾问呢机构荣鼎集团的负责人，也是华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所的访问研究员。 China will soon adjust the exchange rate target itintervenes in markets to achieve. Based on my analysis, I would anticipate a 3percent to 5 percent initial appreciation of the yuan to the U.S. dollarfollowed by a wider range for daily adjustment going forward.
中国将很快通过市场干预调整汇率。按照我的分析，随着每日更大幅度的浮动，我预计人民币将对美元升值约3%到5%。 China will be affected by its currency appreciationtoo: positively! Otherwise it wouldn’t do it.
中国也受货币的升值的影响：正面的！否则它不会这样做。 If that daily adjustment resembles China’s 2005 to 2008appreciation then over the course of 2010 Beijing will have made a reasonableeffort to satisfy its critics. Some of those critics in Congress and elsewherebelieve a 40 perce the best analysis suggests that 15percent strengthening is enough to move China toward a smaller trade surplus.With 5 percent up-front and regular movement to reflect market forcesthereafter, China can get more than half-way to that goal this year. 如果每日调整是类似于中国2005年到2008年的升值然后结束的话，2010年这次北京需要用一种合理的努力来回击那些批评的人。一些国会和其它的批评者认为40%的升值才足够。最好的分析显示15%的升值将足以让中国的贸易盈余减少。5%的升值和这之后市场力量的影响，今年中国将超过这一目标的一半。 After cheering China’s move, we must turn to the realitythat it will not solve our problems. The United States must move beyond asingular focus on currency to talk about many other factors shaping our tradewith China. Two cost distortions on the Chinese side stand out: underpricedborrowing costs for state- and subsidized research anddevelopment costs due to lax intellectual property rights enforcement. Thatsaid, the currency move will help, not hurt, and if other emerging markets inAsia follow China’s move — as is expected — our export opportunities will bebolstered notably. &庆祝完中国的升值，我们必须面对这并不能解决我们自身的问题的现实。我们必须看到除了汇率其它影响中美贸易的因素。中国还存在两个扭曲的因素：国有企业很低的借贷成本，因为缺乏姿势产权保护而降低的研发成本。也就是说，汇率的改变将会起一定的作用，但是不能完全解决，同时如果其它的亚洲新兴经济体也采取中国一样的行动-正是我们预计的-我们的出口机会将显著的增长。
A RisingTrade Surplus 不断增加的贸易盈余
is a senior associate of Carnegie Endowment and aprofessor of finance at the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University. Michael Pettis是卡耐基基金会的高级助理和北京大学光华管理学院的金融教授。 The renminbi is only one of many variables that affectU.S. and global trade. even within China. China’s huge trade surplus is aconsequence of a number of policies that shifts income from consumers toproducers, and in so doing cause Chinese production to rise much faster thanChina’s ability to consume what it produces.
人民币只是影响美国和全球贸易的众多因素之一。中国巨大的贸易盈余是一些列大量把消费者收入转移到生产者的政策的结果，这也是中国的生产能力的增长远快于中国消费其自身生产的产品的能力。 A stronger currency won’t necessary reduce theU.S.-China trade imbalance.
更强劲的汇率不足以减少中美的贸易不平衡。 If the renminbi appreciates while real interest ratesdecline, as currently seems to be happening, the positive impact of a risingrenminbi can be more than easily offset by the lower cost of capital formanufacturers. In this case we could easily see a rising renminbi coincide witha rising trade surplus, much as we saw from July 2005 onwards, when a risingrenminbi and declining real interest rates, along with a vibrant U.S. consumerfinancing market, saw a surge in China’s trade surplus. 如果人民币升值同时实际利率降低，这事目前最可能发生的情况，升值的人民币的正面影响将很简单的被对制造业更便宜的资金成本抵消掉。这样的话我们将很容易看到升值的人民币伴随着贸易盈余的增加，很像我们自2005年7月看到的情况：人民币升值的同时实际利率下降，伴随着活跃的美国消费信贷市场，中国的贸易盈余大幅度的增加。 The recent thaw in trade tensions is likely to be verytemporary. Ultimately what drives trade conflict is when the trade surpluscountry cannot adjust quickly, while high unemployment in the trade deficitcountry creates impatience for rapid change. China needs several years to makewhat will be a difficult adjustment toward a more balanced economy, but withhigh unemployment in the U.S. likely to persist for several more years, it isnot clear that the U.S. will be willing to wait. 最近贸易争端的缓和看起来只是暂时的。最终导致贸易摩擦的将是贸易盈余国家不能的及时迅速的调整而失业率让贸易赤字国对迅速调整没有耐心。中国需要几年的时间来经历困难的转型到一个更平衡的经济体，但是意味着美国的失业率将再持续今年，还不知道美国是否愿意等待。
相关译文来自无觅插件
The immediate benefit of a modest currency adjustment is that it will cool off some of the overheated rhetoric in China and the U.S.,这次小幅度的汇率的调整给中国最立即的好处就是给中国过热的泡沫降降温，
overheated rhetoric 不是指过热的泡沫吧，我觉得应该是指激烈的争论，是说就汇率问题引起的言辞上的争论，呵呵。
确实，谢谢指正
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