钟表行业商群精华月刊，十月份我们成长了什么？
十月钟表行业月刊带你一起深入行业，提升外贸能力！
网站方面：聆听你的声音---网站功能反馈、操作问题交流
行业知识：行业顾问无处不在
外贸互助：必有你我他
最新资讯：行业外贸领先知
月底活动颁奖：优势，是靠自己创造出来的
一、网站方面：
1，阿里的关键词是不是设置到一定程度，后来的人去设置的话，就效果没那么明显啊
于效果来说，关键词起到一部分作用，但不是全部作用，还要看产品整体的信息质量等橱窗尽量放行业热门词，同一个关键词最多只2个就好啦
不要重复使用，因为网站是一轮一轮的排序，每一轮同一家公司只能一个产品，所以同一个关键词设置橱窗2个橱窗就好，起码第二轮的时候，你的产品还有机会展示在前几页
建议：多去数据管家里有个产品效果统计，里面把每一个产品的效果都统计出来了，可以保留有效果的产品，没效果的产品可以重新编辑或删除；另外关键词有很多，多个产品可以设置不同的关键词，覆盖不同国家买家的搜索习惯！
2、速卖通的橱窗推荐产品可以显示多久？表盒Jeny(cn)：看你设置的产品多久下架咯？到期了你没更新就下架了呗；如果那个设置的产品再上架，可继续出现；不过速卖通的橱窗好像比较少，可以定期更换！
3，关于团批：1）解决目前碎片化的订单，是决大多电商接单的方向，了解团批产品定位、MOQ、订价及包装等！一位15年外贸经理人的顿悟和新起点“团批之我见”，欢迎阅读：
2）更多团批业务，请关注：
3）目前团批产品被退回的大部原因如下：
产品标题不完善：首字母要大写，产品标题必须突出产品的卖点与优势&&
主图不清晰&&
详细信息中MOQ与团批不符&&
细节图片中无报名商品的图片：没有主图产品，而是其他产品图片不行&&
细节图片尺寸不符要求：细节图的宽度有要求，大于等于600， 图片清晰美观，无邮箱地址&&
贸易术语填写不规范：如FOB后面一定要有港口，首字母要大写&&
无包装图片
4）知已知彼，了解国外团批成功网站：全球电子商务知识库网站eBizMBA公布的了2012年5月国外最受欢迎的前2个团购网站：1
GroupOn (&&A
target=_blank&&)
eBizMBA排名第325，估计每月访客人，竞争力排名第69，Quantcast排名第533，Alexa排名第372。
2 LivingSocial (&&A
target=_blank&&)
eBizMBA排名第397，估计每月访客人，竞争力排名第152，Quantcast排名第N/A，Alexa排名第642。
行业篇（你问我答）：
1、槍色怎么说啊（感谢
cn的分享）
IP枪色就是IP gun 。
2，有没有人知道土耳其那边喜欢什么款式的手表呀？john huang(kainaking8866)：硅胶运动型
SO建议：通过行业视角的关键词了解土耳其的喜好哦，还有龙之导向，了解本土网站的一些产品
3，请问钟表AQL 2.5 major 4.0 minor leverl
II的标准是？ 24000只要抽多少呢？
sam稳达时 (cn)：按M标准 抽315只& 2.5 Ac 14 Re 15 4.0 Ac21 Re
4，出成表要查机芯的商号编码干吗?
Monk锦利电子 (cn)：我们出货的时候都会有个编码然后发给客户确认因为有时候客户由于他们国家关税的问题会指定他们需要的编码。
不是机芯的吧？肯定是写成表的了!
比如plastic watch。我之前有HS
CODE给客户然后客户说不用这个。她给我个邮件如下：
&Herewith the HS code :
Description to use : platsic wristwatch
Cody洋彬表业 (cn)：手表的HScode 是
5，请教下LCD表跟LED表是怎么区分的？&Arey钟氏钟表(cn)：LCD数字是滑动的，LCD就是直接显示数字，不发光的，“滑动”的意思：看见银行门口上方那些滚动显示，一行一行自动过去，LCD液晶显示触摸屏, LED是发光的
百度：LCD与LED是两个完全不同的概念，LCD是液晶屏幕，用于显示；而LED是光源器件，用于照明；之所以有这两个概念的混淆，源于国内TV厂家的不负责任的宣传
6,方钢扣用英语咋表达勒？方钢扣是不是分为好多种？
square steel buckle,
我知道有蝴蝶扣，折叠扣
7/ Miyota OS10 机芯现在的价格是多少啊？
Crystal金石域(goldstonesz)：HKD 105.5, 你按汇率算下RMB: 按0.82算，86.51
8, 谁知道UN 38.8 是什么来的吗？
Monk(cn)：是不是快递的时候要这个测试？电池测试
我上次电话快递公司的时候他们有提供这样检测的公司。首先你咨询下你的电池供应商。
表-稳达时(cn)：如果你是手表电池，给他们提供氧化银的MSDS就可以, 如果是锂离电池，就一定要MEET UN38.3 TEST, 锂电的MSDS是一定要UN38.3的,
找电池的供商要!
手表去法国多少钱？谁给我算下，谢啦
Lucy百威尔(biwell)：大概600元
10, 40HQ高柜体积该怎样算，求解, 体积是不是：长*宽*高/1000?
Chen(cn)：68CBM
11, os20, os21 是什么机芯？
Alice(cn)：日本西铁城六针带历多功能石英机芯
12, I would be looking to buy between
watches a month, at least 1000 of 1 SKU every month.
请教一下，1SKU是什么意思呢？
钟表制造厂(cn)：SKU这是对于大型连锁超市DC（配送中心）物流管理的一个必要的方法。现在已经被我们引申为产品统一编号的简称，每种产品均对应有唯一的SKU号英文全称为 stock keeping unit, 简称SKU，定义为保存库存控制的最小可用单位，例如纺织品中一个SKU通常表示规格，颜色，款式）。 STOCK KEEP
UNIT.这是客户拿到商品放到仓库后给商品编号,归类的一种方法.
通常是SKU#是多少多少这样子. 还有的译为存货单元\库存单元\库存单位\货物存储单位\存货保存单位\单元化单位\单品\品种,基于业务还有的是最小零售单位\最小销售单位\最小管理单位\库存盘点单位等。
13,有谁知道手表做SGS检测的费用大概多少？检测标准是欧洲市场标准
Tracy梭钟表 (cn)：Rohs:8000RMB
&CE:3000RMB
14, elegance watch
这个通常怎么翻译？
卖表的(cn)：典雅的表~~
15,请问FAMA是一种证书吗，群里有谁知道的，能否告诉一下
Monk(cn)：FAMA是迪斯尼授权认证, FACILITY AND MERCHANDISE
AUTHORIZATION
SO:FAMA的作用主要是现在出于全球反恐的考虑，美国是不允许带有任何恐怖嫌疑的国家和地区出口产品进美国的。而Disney总部就在美国，自然严格按照这一标准，针对他们出到世界各地的产品。一般情况下，工厂填了这份东西以后，表示工厂遵守相关的法规和反恐需要，Disney接着就会在下单以后做factory audit，也就是验厂。
FAMA不仅在出口的时候需要提交给中国海关，以证明你的货是经过Disney授权的，不仅工厂安全，产品也是安全的；另外目的港海关也需要这个东西，证明各方面安全的同时，也保证你的产品是合法途径进来的，而不是仿冒Disney的牌子。
16，折叠扣怎样翻译比较好？folding buckle ?deployant
buckle 折叠扣,
以前我们叫折叠扣也是folding
buckle只是习惯不同，意思应该都一样，只要买家看得明白
17，请教一下，贝母色该怎样翻译？
Crystal金石域(goldstonesz)：应该是MOP吧，是不是做贝壳面？
PING ZOU(cn)：MOP 贝壳面
似乎有珍珠贝，盒贝，假贝的分别
反正价格不一样，珍珠贝最贵最好看，呵呵。
19, it is coating sapphire some call it semi
sapphire.& 这个是不是指镀膜蓝宝石？Crystal金石域 (goldstonesz)：普通的镀膜玻璃. 这种玻璃不贵. &SAPPHIRE GLASS
20,有谁知道电镀无镍酸金，怎样翻译?
pengfei精时表业 (jingshiwatches)：Nickel Free acid gold
21, 2/ Qty: around 80,000pcs (10
asst’d color &
printing), 有谁知道(10
asst’d color
& printing)是什么意思吗？
Saya Long(hkanda)：assorted color的意思, 是混色的意思.
22,我想问一下 CTPAT 认证 是什么
表盒Jeny(cn)：
C-TPAT是美国国土安全部海关边境保护局(即US
Customs and Border Protection，简称“CBP”)在9-11事件发生后所倡议成立的自愿性计划，并于2002年4月16日正式实行。C-TPAT全名为 “Customs-Trade Partnership Against
Terrorism”，即「海关-商贸反恐布联盟」。C-TPAT反恐验厂咨询_验厂服务和咨询，诺亚咨询师将为您讲解C-TPAT反恐验厂咨询_验厂，C-TPAT反恐验厂咨询_验厂相关的内容有：透过C-TPAT的安全建议，CBP希望能与相关业界合作建立供应链安全管理系统，以确保供应链从起点到终点的运输安全、安全讯息及货况的流通，从而阻止恐布份子的渗入。宁波C-TPAT认证；金华C-TPAT认证；杭州C-TPAT认证；香港C-TPAT认证；温州C-TPAT认证；台州C-TPAT认证；湖州C-TPAT认证；诺亚C-TPAT认证；
23,各位，有谁走过手表的DHL的空运吗？需要电池备案书和MSDS报告的, 有谁做过吗？。
Skarlie探索科技(dreamsport)：找电池供应商都有的哦, 如果电池供应商木有备案书，他们很难运作，基本都有这个哦
成表-稳达时(cn)：你手表装的是什么电池那就要用对应型号的备案书, 我上次走DHL只要非危证明及电池的MSDS, 会有一个备案号
硅胶表-程辉(cnchenghuiwatch)：找DHL代理什么的，不要电池备案书也可以走的，有的快递就把msds叫做电池备案书呢
24， prices in G.B.P. 请教高手上面的G.B.P.是指什么呀？
硅胶表-程辉(cnchenghuiwatch)：英镑
25，镀膜蓝宝石的玻璃，大概多少钱啊？
Atung沃琪 (woqiwatch)：50多
26，现在日本的PC21机芯是多少钱呢？
ZOU(cn)：4块多点吧，我报给客人都是报日本的
成表King(cn)：4快多的是21s
ZCH(springzch520)：有新加坡和日本的，现在大部分是新加坡的，记得地震前还是3块多，比国产的贵1块8
Wu(wysunrise)：好像有PC21S 和PC21，他们说PC21比PC21S贵， 国产的SL68还好吧，便宜些
ZOU(cn)：拍拍表用的到多。日本机芯我就知道那几个，PC21,2035等，估计价格差距不是很大。几毛钱吧。
27，表头的英语是怎么说的啊
成表-遗忘hk分享的潜水表英文表达的结构图
28，有谁知道 MIYOTA 2115 dete
机芯现在价格如何呢？
Atung沃琪钟表(woqiwatch)：11.7是2115带单历价格；6.35是2035不带历价格
29, deboss logo 是什么LOGO?
qinbao厦门馨禾 (xinhexm)：debossed logo 是凹刻logo；embossed logo才是凸刻的logo
30，有谁知道水电英语怎么讲啊？
成表King(cn):
wet plating
31，请问联邦会走成表吗？
qinbao厦门馨禾进
(xinhexm):
可以走，就是单件不要超过10kg就好，成表不用卡停
Helen先锋达 (wysunrise): 直接走联邦那些快递，带电池好麻烦额，要提供一堆的证明
33. 请问一下，talking
watch具体是啥样的呀？有啥功能呢？
成表Hidy(cn):
会报时的，比如你按一下按扭，就会告诉你现在时刻几点几点
外贸互助篇：
1、咨询一下我有个客户想来公司看看是巴基斯坦的
但是目前没有签证，需要我们公司发邀请。 请问需要怎样做？
cn：就发个邀请函呀，用WORD做一个吧，要盖你们公司的公章
2 信用卡付款有没有什么猫腻啊?
买家在付款之后一定期限内可以撤销付款，国际信用卡欺诈特征&&A
href=".cn/s/blog_74cf6bbe0101692k.html"
target=_blank&.cn/s/blog_74cf6bbe0101692k.html&
3,体积的公式是怎样的?
Lucy百威尔 (biwell)：长*宽*高/5000&
So: 如果是空运的话，都是取实际重量和体积重量较大的为准，体积重量的计算方法：长*宽*高/6000，有些快递可能除以5000.
3，dropship 是什么意思啊？
Samy科达表业(cn): &分开发送，类似一个一个发货，一般小客户会要求这样，像做网络销售的，别人买了一个，他就叫你发一个
Andosun琮易鑫 (cyxwatch): 货款全部都到了就可以，他要什么时候发货都可以，运费客人出，但千万不要货做出来了，货款却没有打过来
4，请问有谁知道Aramex 的电话
ARAMEX快递（有中东客户的可以了解一下）：Aramex是全球领先的综合物流解决方案者，以国际快递为核心业务的中东地区专业快递公司。现在很多中东的买家都指定要这家快递运输。时效非常有保障,正常时效为3个工作日,一般时间均为2-5天.主要优势在于中东、北非、南亚等20多个国家较为显著。 一、运费价格优势：寄往中东、北非、南亚等国家价格具有显著的优势，是DHL的60%左右；
二、时效优势：时效有保障，包裹寄出后3到5天可以投递，大大缩短了世界各国间的商业距离； 三、无偏远优势：世界各国无偏远，抵达全球各国都无需附加偏远费用。 四、包裹可在aramex官网跟踪查询，状态实时更新信息，寄件人每时每刻都跟踪得到包裹最新动态。
Monk(cn):&
/offices/default.aspx
6，请问那个公司有接受过D/P 付款。是否有风险
Andosun琮易鑫 (cyxwatch): &D/P结合定金应该算是风险小点，30%定金+70%见提单付款就是定金+D/P
(分享一)，样品这么寄：& 表盒Jeny(cn):
1，注意附上详细的产品和公司资料，包括认证检测证明等；
2，在样品上书写或悬挂、粘贴标签注明公司名称和联系方式；
3，随样品赠送礼节性小礼品；
4，提供相关材料信息或周边配套用品信息，例如买家采购服装布料，可提供一些钮扣和彩边的采购建议和厂商信息。
(分享二)几家常用国际快递公司的特点：
1.帖子：非常曲折也非常受益的一单，外贸路上大家相互勉励，（PS：刘小姐做外贸不到一年，已经独当一面，接了好几单了）
2、重点提醒：
目前第三方欺诈案件高发（骗子通过收购子账号或询盘获得买家联系方式从而进行欺诈，被骗后极难定位诈骗方），无论询盘共享还是询盘出售都会让骗子诈骗成本越来越低，买卖交易风险会越来越大。建议各位保管好自己的询盘客户等资料，不要随意出售或泄露相关信息。因为买家发给供应商询盘后，如果因供应商对外泄露相关信息导致买家被骗，供应商需要负相关责任。
“产品发得越多，曝光越多吗？”，来看徐老师的正解吧：
4，专家坐诊：回复询盘，请注意您的第一次！！！搞清楚您的邮件开发的对象，把客户分成4类，不同的跟进方法，非常值得大家观摩：
7，徐钧聊聊--如何写令买家满意的产品信息？：
8. 瑞士表（中国）市场营销案例：&&A
href=".cn/s/blog_add6b62e01014ftm.html"
target=_blank&.cn/s/blog_add6b62e01014ftm.html&
9.电商成线下传统品牌必争之地--海鸥表电商营销： &&&A
href=".cn/s/blog_add6b62e01014gjt.html"
target=_blank&.cn/s/blog_add6b62e01014gjt.html&
手腕上顶级腕表的拜金风潮:
在360新员工入职培训上的讲话
月底活动颁奖：
十月积分排名+10月份考试分数成绩，现评选出钟表行业获奖的前三名：第一名：cn--Jenny（赠送阿里巴巴国际站珠宝行业专区推广一个月）第二名：cn-成表-稳达时（赠送阿里巴巴国际站珠宝行业专区推广半个月）并列第三名：biwell
--Lucy（阿里巴巴中国供应商专区半个月）并列第三名：cn-成表Hidy（阿里巴巴中国供应商专区半个月）
中国钟表世家交流群，诚邀你加入，旺群号：
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今日律师风向标:
有配偶者与他人同居最多赔多少
有配偶者与他人同居最多赔多少
　问题来自：广东 - 惠州　悬赏：0分　咨询时间： 08:33　咨询人：i509209ui
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法律快车律师回复共4条回复
重婚有赔偿，同居没赔偿
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有配偶者与他人同居，主要指“包二奶”等虽不以夫妻名义共同生活，但存在较为长期的婚外非法同居的行为。　　有配偶者与他人同居，是指有配偶者与婚外的异性不以夫妻名义，持续、稳定的共同居住的行为，构成有配偶者与他人同居的要件有三个：1、有配偶者；2、不以夫妻名义；3、持续、稳定的共同居住。符合这三个要件，构成有配偶者与他人同居的行为。这种行为严重违反了《婚姻法》的规定，合法夫妻的无过错方应当依法予以制止，但这种行为并不违反《刑法》的规定，如果有配偶者与他人以夫妻名义持续、稳定的共同居住，则构成重婚，应依法受到《刑法》的处罚。如有不明白的，可以来电，免费详细咨询周律师。
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一般同居没有赔偿。只有有证据证明对方是属于重婚时。才能有赔偿。
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同意上述律师的意见。
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出门在外也不愁NFL free agency: The most & least valuable QB, RB & WR signings -
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Free agency is a crap shoot, especially when it comes to signing offensive skill players. Jason Chilton takes a look at which teams got the most return, and which ones got burned, on their additions at quarterback, running back & wide receiver over the last three years as well as lessons for this year's feeding frenzy.
(offensive tackles) and
(interior linemen and tight ends) of our series we introduced the concept of Dollar Value Performance (DVP) as a method of stating a player's performance in dollar terms and comparing it to his cap charge. We also took a look at what DVP had to say about the surplus value that teams have been able to realize in signing the
and 2013 free agent offensive line and tight end classes
If things got contentious when discussing the value of offensive linemen and tight ends, they figure to get even more contentious as we move into the pure skill positions.
That's a natural consequence of two things.
First, people tend to have much stronger opinions on the relative merits of guys who score (or don't) for their fantasy teams than they do on how the left guard for the
is performing.
Second, skill position guys' performance is much more dependent on other players' actions and the overall structure of the offense, whereas the guys in the trenches usually just have to do something violent to the large gentleman right in front of them.
Let's get to it.
Wide receivers
It's hard to imagine advanced NFL statistics ever reaching a point where wide receiver performance can be viewed independently of quarterback play, and we certainly aren't at that point yet.
With that said, we've aimed to define wide receiver performance through three metrics where those players can exert the most impact:
- Pro Football Focus' yards per pass route run metric, which inherently factors in both a receiver's ability to earn targets from his QB as well as his ability to turn them into something productive
- PFF's receiving rating (converted to a meaningful per-route basis), which adds a subjective element of how well a receiver is performing to a trained eye, and ...
- Touchdowns scored.
Touchdowns can be somewhat random and often over-valued relative to the simple work of matriculating the ball down the field, but at the WR position they tend to result from one of three objectively valuable elements - long speed, red zone route precision, or simple go-up-and-get-it ability.
With those three metrics defining value, here are 2013's top receivers from a DVP standpoint:
Total Snaps in Route
Yards / Pass Route Run
PFF Rating / Route Run
Rating DVP
Touchdowns
Touchdowns DVP
2013 Cap Hit
2013 Surplus Value
Calvin Johnson
Josh Gordon
Antonio Brown
You know him, you love him -
again stood atop the wide receiver ranks by virtue of his incomparable physical skills and ability to defeat all manner of custom coverages.
We don't currently have a metric to determine how much an overrated, overpaid QB should have to pay to his singularly talented wideout, but we're working on it.
put paid to the concept of the sophomore slump, surging to a fantastic season despite dubious quarterback play and a two-game suspension to start the season.
put in an outstanding campaign in the midst of a down year in Pittsburgh, providing
with a reliable target while vindicating management's decision to pay him instead of Mike Wallace.
Thus far in our journey, GMs have had a tough time finding excess value in free agency.
Can the wideout position turn things around?
Let's start out with a look at how the 2011 WR free agent class has fared in the three seasons since they signed:
Signing Team
2011 Cap Hit
2011 Value
2011 Surplus
2012 Cap Hit
2012 Value
2012 Surplus
2013 Cap Hit
2013 Value
2013 Surplus
Remaining Dead Money
Total Surplus to Date
Laurent Robinson
Roy E. Williams
Braylon Edwards
Derrick Mason
Plaxico Burress
Michael Jenkins
Mike Sims-Walker
Brad Smith
Steve Breaston
Sidney Rice
Four position and 19 players into our analysis, we FINALLY find a 2011 free agent who netted out positive surplus value over a three-year span for his team - and even then, we had to cheat.
was signed and then cut by the
at the start of the 2011 season, and the cap figure and DVP performance above for the 2011 season came after he was scooped off the street by the .
As we'll see, however, projecting that performance forward became a very dicey proposition for the .
Roy Williams sort of rebounded from a disastrous stint in Dallas to come within shouting distance of earning his money with the , and that's where the good(ish) news stopped for the 2011 class. From the Viking's ill-starred signing of Molasses Mike Jenkins to the ' wild overpay of gadget player
to the ' outright disastrous experience with Sidney "Mr. Glass" Rice, the wide receiver position continued the 2011 free agent trend of wholesale value destruction.
Here's how the 2011 class stacked up from a metrics standpoint:
Total Snaps in Route
Yards / Pass Route Run
PFF Rating / Route Run
Touchdowns
Total Snaps in Route
Yards / Pass Route Run
PFF Rating / Route Run
Touchdowns
Total Snaps in Route
Yards / Pass Route Run
PFF Rating / Route Run
Touchdowns
Laurent Robinson
N/A (No longer with team)
N/A (Not in football)
Roy E. Williams
N/A (Not in football)
N/A (Not in football)
Braylon Edwards
N/A (No longer with team)
Derrick Mason
N/A (Not in football)
N/A (Not in football)
Plaxico Burress
N/A (No longer with team)
N/A (Injured)
Michael Jenkins
Mike Sims-Walker
N/A (Not in football)
N/A (Not in football)
Brad Smith
Steve Breaston
N/A (Not in football)
Sidney Rice
Could the 2012 wide receiver class turn things around?
Signing Team
2012 Cap Hit
2012 Value
2012 Surplus
2013 Cap Hit
2013 Value
2013 Surplus
Remaining Dead Money
Total Surplus to Date
Brandon Marshall
Donnie Avery
Donte' Stallworth
Chaz Schilens
Plaxico Burress
Pierre Garcon
Roscoe Parrish
Vincent Jackson
Andre Caldwell
Jerome Simpson
Eric Weems
Brandon Lloyd
Mario Manningham
Eddie Royal
Robert Meachem
Josh Morgan
Laurent Robinson
Ummm...sort of?
Elite talent acquitted itself pretty well.
Brandon Marshall has been well worth the Bears' while after his move from Miami in 2012.
has almost evened out the Bucs' investment so far in spite of his wildly inflated first-year cap charge.
For his part,
would almost certainly be in plus territory had he not missed a good chunk of the 2012 season with foot woes.
The analysis looked far less favorably on other signings.
Brandon Lloyd's year in New England wasn't a disaster, but it didn't convince Bill Belichick that he was worth keeping around and resulted in a $3.5 million dead money hit the next season.
has struggled to overcome injury, ineffectiveness and the ' run-heavy ways to justify his contract.
was a bust in his first season with the Chargers, and is probably getting short-changed on his fine 2013 season based on the YPPRR formula's inherent bias against possession-type guys.
There are no excuses available for the three guys at the bottom of the list, however - , Josh Morgan and Laurent Robinson turned out to be tremendous wastes of resources for their signing teams.
This is how the 2012 class has performed from a metrics standpoint:
Total Snaps in Route
Yards / Pass Route Run
PFF Rating / Route Run
Touchdowns
Total Snaps in Route
Yards / Pass Route Run
PFF Rating / Route Run
Touchdowns
Brandon Marshall
Donnie Avery
Donte' Stallworth
N/A (Not in football)
Chaz Schilens
N/A (Injured)
N/A (Not in football)
Plaxico Burress
N/A (Injured)
Pierre Garcon
Roscoe Parrish
N/A (Not in football)
Vincent Jackson
Andre Caldwell
Jerome Simpson
Eric Weems
Brandon Lloyd
N/A (Not in football)
Mario Manningham
Eddie Royal
Robert Meachem
Josh Morgan
Laurent Robinson
N/A (Not in football)
The 2013 free agent class was rife with big names.
Did their games translate into value for the teams that signed them?
Signing Team
2013 Cap Hit
2013 Value
2013 Surplus
Remaining Dead Money
Total Surplus to Date
Anquan Boldin
Kevin Ogletree
Brandon Gibson
Marlon Moore
Louis Murphy
Joshua Cribbs
Kevin Walter
Wes Welker
Domenik Hixon
Danny Amendola
Mike Wallace
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Davone Bess
Greg Jennings
Percy Harvin
The DVP model absolutely loved
and, more specifically, his tremendous YPPRR mark (see below) that ranked third among all qualifying receivers.
In an offense that was missing
for much of the year, Boldin was targeted on a huge percentage of his routes and managed tremendous efficiency -- when not being jailed by
-- while also wow-ing the PFF graders from an eyeball test standpoint.
Ted Ginn justified his modest contract in limited work as the ' only legitimate deep threat, and
was well on his way to a plus season before tearing his patellar tendon.
The model's debatable bias against possession types shows up clearly in the modest DVP number for
- it's highly unlikely that the
regretted their investment, and future iterations of the model will explore adding in a third-down conversion factor to better capture the value that a guy like Welker brings to the table.
The model's far less debatable biases include deep ball receivers who never really get around to catching deep balls ( and DHB), slot receivers with horrifying 25 percent drop rates (), and guys who miss 98 percent of the regular season with injury ().
Violating the twin free agency edicts of "don't pay someone else's No. 2 to be your No. 1" and "don't drop big money on a receiver when your quarterback is terrible" predictably failed to yield the Vikes a good return on their
signing, and that contract figures to get even uglier going forward if Minnesota doesn't hit it big at QB.
The 2013 class' metric performance:
Running backs
Few positions depend more on the performance of other players than the running back spot, and no position has more variables in our model to try and tease out individual performance.
The running back DVP value is a function of basic yards per carry, yards after contact per carry, PFF's elusive rating (factoring in YAC and missed tackles forced) and yards per pass route run to factor in the aerial component.
Those metrics tend to value explosiveness and guys who can gain yards in chunks over grinders and chain movers ... but so does the very nature of spread-era football.
Since no position features as many young or previously unheralded players bursting onto the scene and shining bright, it's to be expected that generating surplus value at a high salary is a tough proposition for even the most talented players.
Here's a look at 2013's top DVP performers at running back, with the proportion of their DVP earned by category:
Total Touches
YAC/ Carry
Yards per Pass Route Run
Elusive Rating
Elusive DVP
LeSean McCoy
Adrian L. Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
2013 Cap Hit
2013 Surplus Value
LeSean McCoy
Adrian L. Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
Shady McCoy's talent shone bright in his first year with Chip Kelly and the ' revamped and super-athletic offensive line.
had another fine year, and his yards after contact and elusive rating numbers were outstanding considering his substantial workload.
However, even a great-but-still-mortal season couldn't come close to justifying a massive $13.9 million cap hit at the game's most fungible position.
For reference, the DVP model assigned a $16.0 million value to Peterson's demigod/Area 51-caliber performance in 2012 - if you need a guy to consistently turn in all-time career years to justify his cap figure, you probably overpaid.
The DVP model may still be short-changing
a bit for the work he did in elevating the Seahawks' run game behind an OL that saw far fewer snaps from quality players like Russ Okung than it did from execrable performers like
Even with a bump, however, Beast Mode would barely break even with an $8.5 million cap hit.
This fact is probably not lost on the Seahawks' front office, and should also be noted by any dynasty leaguers out there who can get their hands on .
When you consider that running back is a frequently fungible position where injuries are frequent and youth is served, you'd imagine that handing out second contracts in free agency is a very dicey business when you're shooting for surplus value.
How well have teams fared over the last three seasons?
Let's start with a look at the 2011 class:
Signing Team
2011 Cap Hit
2011 Value
2011 Surplus
2012 Cap Hit
2012 Value
2012 Surplus
2013 Cap Hit
2013 Value
2013 Surplus
Remaining Dead Money
Total Surplus to Date
Darren Sproles
Willis McGahee
Ricky Williams
Jerious Norwood
Marion Barber
It's probably no surprise that an unconventionally skilled player like
would buck conventional wisdom when it comes to generating second-contract surplus.
Sproles' stint in New Orleans has been a match made in heaven thanks to the quick trigger of
and the innovative mind of coach Sean Payton.
While Sproles hasn't equalled the near-nuclear explosiveness he showed in the 2011 campaign, he's been a unique and often un-coverable element of the ' passing game and has finished in plus territory in all three seasons in the Big Easy.
benefitted from tremendous genetics (what might his career have been without that gruesome bowl game knee injury?), plenty of opportunities and a healthy dose of Tebow-generated backside pursuit constraint to turn in a robust 2011 campaign, and he even managed to land in plus territory in 2012 under a far more pass-happy
turned in a respectable campaign in his final season in the league, while
failed to recapture his pre-payday form as he closed things out in Chicago.
The metric performances for the 2011 class:
Total Touches
YAC/ Carry
Yards per Pass Route Run
Elusive Rating
Total Touches
YAC/ Carry
Yards per Pass Route Run
Elusive Rating
Darren Sproles
Willis McGahee
Ricky Williams
N/A (Not in football)
Jerious Norwood
N/A (No longer on team)
Marion Barber III
N/A (Not in football)
Total Touches
YAC/ Carry
Yards per Pass Route Run
Elusive Rating
Darren Sproles
Willis McGahee
N/A (No longer on team)
Ricky Williams
N/A (No longer on team)
Jerious Norwood
N/A (No longer on team)
Marion Barber III
N/A (Not in football)
The 2012 class was largely a picture of fiscal responsibility, with low average annual value signings being (mostly) the order of the day:
Signing Team
2012 Cap Hit
2012 Value
2012 Surplus
2013 Cap Hit
2013 Value
2013 Surplus
Remaining Dead Money
Total Surplus to Date
Mike Goodson
Ronnie Brown
Jackie Battle
Mike Tolbert
Brandon Jacobs
Peyton Hillis
Benjarvus Green-Ellis
Michael Bush
Over the last two seasons,
has shown some serious per-touch explosiveness with the usual caveat of small sample size.
His off-field baggage and ACL tear may destroy his 2014 market, which is disappointing considering the tantalizing glimpses he's shown on the field.
looked completely washed up before landing in San Diego, but he turned in one turn-back-the-clock season in 2012 before ... looking completely washed up in 2013.
The DVP model is quite unkind to plodding backs, and the bottom four guys on the list attest to that fact.
Of the multi-year deals, at least the
employed BJGE in a starting role for their ~$3 milliion per. The Bears' decision to hand a $10 million+ deal to
already in the fold is just indefensible.
Here's how the 2012'ers handled themselves from a productivity standpoint:
Total Touches
YAC/ Carry
Yards per Pass Route Run
Elusive Rating
Total Touches
YAC/ Carry
Yards per Pass Route Run
Elusive Rating
Mike Goodson
N/A (No Longer on Team)
Ronnie Brown
Jackie Battle
N/A (No Longer on Team)
Mike Tolbert
Brandon Jacobs
N/A (No Longer on Team)
Peyton Hillis
N/A (No Longer on Team)
Benjarvus Green-Ellis
Michael Bush
Whither the 2013 class?
Signing Team
2013 Cap Hit
2013 Value
2013 Surplus
Remaining Dead Money
Total Surplus to Date
Chris Ivory
Rashad Jennings
Danny Woodhead
Reggie Bush
Jackie Battle
Brian Leonard
Peyton Hillis
Mike Goodson
Felix Jones
LaRod Stephens-Howling
Ahmad Bradshaw
Rashard Mendenhall
Steven Jackson
Shonn Greene
There's more than one way to skin a cat, and more than one way to rack up tasty YAC and elusive numbers - Chris Ivory's approach is simply to slam into you really hard and bust tackles left and right.
It's not an approach that lends itself to longevity, but it was effective enough to net the
a solid return in the first year of his deal.
' eclipsing of former Top 10 pick Run HMO DMC was Argument No. 2,176 against over-investing in the position, while
showed enough wiggle out of the backfield to star in the passing game and create a handsome return on their teams' investments.
On the flip side of the list, you had injury-plagued guys like
and Steven Jackson, plodders like , and the Deep South version of Michael Bush in
all destroying value in some form or fashion.
The lads' stats for 2013:
Total Touches
YAC/ Carry
Yards per Pass Route Run
Elusive Rating
Chris Ivory
Rashad Jennings
Danny Woodhead
Reggie Bush
Jackie Battle
Brian Leonard
Peyton Hillis
Mike Goodson
Felix Jones
LaRod Stephens-Howling
Ahmad Bradshaw
Rashard Mendenhall
Steven Jackson
Shonn Greene
Quarterbacks
The free agent market for QBs is a weird one.
Many of the signings are for guys who are understood to be backups, and backups at a position where their team is generally hoping they don't play at all.
The teams looking for starters in free agency tend to be the woeful and forlorn, looking for a stopgap or hoping against hope that a guy from the bargain bin can steer them to the playoffs.
For obvious reasons, it's tremendously rare that a franchise guy like Peyton Manning ever reaches the open market.
But that doesn't mean that teams can't see surplus value from their QB signings if the price is right.
The DVP formula primarily calculates QB value based on Pro Football Focus' adjusted quarterback rating - it functions similarly to the traditional NFL QB rating while also factoring in things like dropped passes and throw-aways to arrive at a number that's more fully under a quarterback's control.
Since creating a fun performance scale that encompasses both Peyton Manning and Cam Newton would be a lulzy but ultimately counter-productive exercise, the formula simply adds value for rushing yards and TDs.
Let's get a look at our top three DVP QBs from 2013:
Pass Snaps (IR)
2013 Cap Hit
2013 Surplus Value
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Philip Rivers
It should come as no surprise that perhaps the best season in quarterbacking history nabbed the top DVP spot.
It's typically a tall order to generate surplus value when you're setting the position standard from a compensation standpoint, but Manning more than justified Denver's hefty investment with a record-setting season and a
appearance.
Drew Brees came in to 2013 sporting a similarly hefty cap hit, and came out with yet another 5,000-yard extravaganza that got the Saints back in the playoffs and kept him on the right side of the surplus value ledger.
looked ready for the glue factory during his last couple of seasons in Norv Turner's downfield attack, but Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt crafted a short-passing masterpiece that played to Rivers' strengths and re-established him among the game's top QBs.
While it would be a tall order for a free agent QB to generate value on that scale, how well has the 2011 QB class rewarded their signing teams?
Signing Team
2011 Cap Hit
2011 Value
2011 Surplus
2012 Cap Hit
2012 Value
2012 Surplus
2013 Cap Hit
Matt Moore
Tarvaris Jackson
Derek Anderson
Tyler Thigpen
Matt Hasselbeck
Signing Team
2013 Value
2013 Surplus
Remaining Dead Money
Total Surplus to Date
Matt Moore
Tarvaris Jackson
Derek Anderson
Tyler Thigpen
Matt Hasselbeck
Despite flaming out in Carolina, Matt Moore rewarded the
with above-average play upon his arrival in 2011.
He has since taken a back seat to 2012 first-rounder .
There's certainly economic value to simply being available as a competent backup that this model doesn't capture, so Moore's 2012 and 2013 cap hits come across as almost pure negatives.
Even so, he ends up in plus territory thanks to his strong 2011 showing (and the position's high average salary).
didn't light the world on fire in 2011 when he took the field for Seattle, but he was better than you probably remember and justified his (position-relative) modest salary.
Just like Moore, he was bumped in favor of a 2012 rookie ... some guy named Wilson.
came at a price that's not too far above average for the position, but losing some snaps to
in 2011 and losing the job outright in 2012 meant no chance of generating surplus value for the Titans.
Here's how these guys have performed over their last three seasons:
Pass Snaps (IR)
Pass Snaps (IR)
Matt Moore
Tarvaris Jackson
Derek Anderson
Tyler Thigpen
Matt Hasselbeck
Pass Snaps (IR)
Matt Moore
Tarvaris Jackson
Derek Anderson
N/A (No Longer with Team)
Tyler Thigpen
N/A (No Longer with Team)
Matt Hasselbeck
Would the 2012 class fare better?
Including a guy like Manning can't hurt...
Signing Team
2012 Cap Hit
2012 Value
2012 Surplus
2013 Cap Hit
2013 Value
2013 Surplus
Remaining Dead Money
Total Surplus to Date
Peyton Manning
Chad Henne
Kyle Orton
Matt Flynn
Go figure!
Manning is the lone bright spot of the 2012 group, having laughed in the face of the challenge that is generating surplus value at a nearly $18 million AAV.
That's where the good new ends for this class, however.
actually hasn't embarrassed himself all that much when you consider his dire working conditions in Jacksonville, but he's still one of oh so many Jags to come out on the wrong side of the surplus value equation.
has played competently when called upon in Dallas, and is another victim of the model failing to include the "insurance value" of a good backup.
You could make the case that the
fiasco could have served as a fireable offense for ex-Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum all by its lonesome - of course, Tannenbaum's tenure was basically a litany of fireable offenses, so the Tebow thing sort of just got lost in the noise.
Matt Flynn became a near-$8 million write-off for the Seahawks and continued the wildly imbalanced personnel record of GM John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll.
When they're picking defense, they are absolutely lights out.
On offense, the special talents of
and Marshawn Lynch have saved their bacon despite a litany of highly dubious moves.
Here's a look at the 2012 class' on-field showing:
Pass Snaps (IR)
Pass Snaps (IR)
Peyton Manning
Chad Henne
Kyle Orton
N/A (No longer in league)
Matt Flynn
2013 saw the kind of abundant QB moves that you tend to see when faced with a lacktastic draft class at the position.
How well did all that moving and shaking work out?
Signing Team
2013 Cap Hit
2013 Value
2013 Surplus
Remaining Dead Money
Total Surplus to Date
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Flynn
Carson Palmer
Jason Campbell
Brian Hoyer
Brady Quinn
Alex D. Smith
Matt Cassel
Colt McCoy
Kevin Kolb
landed in Tennessee as an insurance policy, and that policy paid off once Jake Locker went down.
Fitzy will never be the player that Bills management thought they had when they dropped a $50 million extension on him, but his simple ability to hit what he aims at had to surprise and delight the Titans' receivers after a couple of seasons with The Hurt Locker.
performance was downright horrifying in a few games, but he sported an exceptionally low cap hit for the
and probably generated 60 percent of his value in one game against the Walking Dead zombie casting call that was the Cowboys' secondary.
started the season in shaky fashion, but acclimated to getting rid of the ball quickly behind Arizona's wretched OL and nearly guided the Cards to a playoff berth despite their ludicrously stacked division.
Both Jason Campbell and
had some good moments for the , which should sandwich in nicely between
and Johnny Manziel.
Alex Smith proved the kind of impact that simple competence can make at the QB position when compared to 2012's / snuff film.
He didn't quite justify his above-average salary from a metric standpoint, but
fans didn't begrudge him a dime after 2012's trauma.
The aforementioned Cassel actually had a few nice moments with the
young n' frisky wideout corps, and ended up opting out of the last year of his deal to take a place near the front of a dismal class of 2014 free agents.
Even more dismal was the story of , who slipped on a wet mat in the preseason and likely slipped out of the ranks of NFL starters for good.
Here's how these fellows stacked up on the field in 2013:
Pass Snaps (IR)
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Flynn
Carson Palmer
Jason Campbell
Brian Hoyer
Alex D. Smith
Matt Cassel
Colt McCoy
Kevin Kolb
N/A (Injured)
Hopefully you've enjoyed this introduction to the Dollar Value Performance system of quantifying NFL player value, as well as a look at free agency's recent history on the offensive side of the ball.
Check back this week for a recap of some key DVP principles and a look ahead at the start of 2014 free agency in the NFL, and keep it here for daily recaps and reactions to what should be a very lively free agency period.
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